LNG Traffic in Hormuz Nears Standstill: Qatar Shipments Fall 93%
In the sixth month of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, LNG shipments from Qatar have declined by 93%, while traffic in the region has come to a near standstill despite talks aimed at reaching a peace agreement.
As the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz reaches six months, LNG shipments from Qatar have fallen by 93%, and traffic remains near a standstill despite frequent statements regarding a peace agreement. However, global natural gas prices have not risen as much as many expected.
A new analysis by Veson Nautical maritime analyst Jarl Milford shows that increased LNG exports from North America are helping to offset the lost volumes from Qatar.
U.S. LNG exports have increased by 22% since the beginning of the year, while Canada has already shipped 5.5 million tonnes this year. This amount is more than double the total volume it shipped throughout 2025.
Withdrawals from storage, demand restrictions and a shift to coal for power generation are also helping to mitigate the impact.
JKM (Japan-South Korea LNG price index) prices have doubled since the conflict began, but they remain well below the levels seen during the natural gas shock of 2022.
The outlook for the second half of the year depends on whether the disruption in the Middle East will continue into the winter months.
Jarl said, “The outlook for the second half of the year remains uncertain due to the unresolved situation in the Middle East. Although the natural gas market has proven resilient so far, if the disruption continues, we could see conditions tighten as we head into winter.”
