War in the Black Sea Takes Its Toll on Commercial Shipping

The spillover of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine into the maritime domain is raising security concerns for commercial shipping in the Black Sea. Attacks involving unmanned aerial and naval vehicles, particularly off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, are directly affecting commercial traffic in the region.

At least nine commercial vessels came under attack in the region in October. On 28 October, the Liberia-flagged, Greek-owned Contship Jet sank after being targeted by three unmanned surface vehicles off Bulgaria. All 18 crew members were rescued.

A total of 696 security incidents were recorded in the Western Black Sea, approximately 537 of them in Ukrainian waters. The spread of attacks towards the Danube Delta and commercial routes serving Ukrainian ports has further heightened concerns over maritime safety in the region.

Shipowners Reassess Port Calls

Rising threats are prompting shipowners and charterers to reconsider voyage decisions. Some shipowners are reportedly reluctant to accept voyage orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, potentially leading to legal disputes under charterparty agreements.

Security concerns are also affecting the insurance market. War-risk coverage and insurance costs are becoming increasingly important for vessels calling at Ukrainian ports. Meanwhile, between 80 and 125 vessels are reportedly waiting off Sulina, with delays reaching up to 17 days.

Grain Trade Routes Shift

Attacks on Ukrainian ports have forced the country to adjust its export routes. Damage to ports in the Odesa region has increased the importance of ports along the Danube River. Their share of Ukraine's port cargo traffic rose from approximately 10% in the first half of 2026 to 74% in August.

However, the diversion of cargo flows to alternative routes has increased congestion around the Danube Delta and nearby ports. Given the significant shares of global wheat exports accounted for by Russia and Ukraine, disruptions in the Black Sea pose risks to international grain trade and global supply chains.

Security Risks Persist in the Black Sea

Maritime security assessments indicate that the risk of direct attacks on vessels with no commercial links to Ukraine remains low. However, misidentification, secondary attacks and explosions mean that all vessels operating in the region must exercise increased caution.

Ukraine continues diplomatic efforts to restore a grain corridor and secure a pause in hostilities in the Black Sea, but no agreement has yet been reached between the parties. Current developments suggest that the impact of the conflict on commercial shipping and global supply chains will continue.