Risk of Attacks in the Black Sea: Vessels Waiting in Istanbul

The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine have brought Black Sea trade to the brink of a standstill. The congestion caused by hundreds of merchant vessels unable to enter the region due to security risks and forced to anchor in the Sea of Marmara has spread as far as the coastlines. Industry representatives warn that Ukraine’s targeting of every vessel it considers linked to Russia, regardless of flag, could disrupt global supply chains and fuel global inflation.

Assessing the scale of the crisis, Mustafa Can, Chairman of the Board of Transbosphor Maritime, said the situation in the Black Sea has reached a level that threatens navigational safety and the Turkish economy.

Anchorages in the Sea of Marmara Are Full, Vessels Waiting Offshore

Mustafa Can stated that the security crisis in the Black Sea has significantly increased congestion in the Sea of Marmara, saying: “Turkey has a strong infrastructure consisting of vessel traffic control stations and a system that monitors the entire coastline in real time from Ankara. However, there is a major problem on the Black Sea side. Ukraine is targeting every vessel it considers linked to Russia, regardless of its flag. This has brought our Black Sea trade almost completely to a halt. Under normal circumstances, vessels whose inbound checks are completed within 72 hours are able to proceed, but 90% of them are now forced to wait offshore in the Sea of Marmara, drifting because the anchorages are completely full.”

206 Vessels Hit in Four Months, Turkish River-Sea Fleet Could Be Scrapped

Emphasizing that the attacks in the Black Sea have dealt a heavy blow to the Turkish-owned fleet, Can outlined the scale of the damage as follows: “Ukraine has struck 206 vessels in the region over the past four months. Approximately 40 of them are Turkish-owned or Turkish-flagged vessels. There are around 150 Turkish river-sea vessels operating in our region. Since these vessels cannot be diverted to other routes, they have been left completely idle and are no longer able to operate. If this situation continues for another 3–4 months, Turkey’s huge fleet of river-sea vessels will disappear and all of them will end up being scrapped. Targeting merchant vessels is clearly a war crime, and our lawyers are carrying out the necessary work on this matter.”

Warning of an Environmental Disaster and Inflation

Mustafa Can warned that the risk of Ukraine striking loaded crude oil tankers could pave the way for a major environmental disaster, stating: “There is a risk that crude oil leaking from a struck tanker could drift toward the Turkish Straits. This poses a serious ecological threat. On the other hand, the disruption of logistics routes will force the use of alternative and more expensive routes. This disruption will increase freight rates and have a direct negative impact on our inflation.”

Strait Revenues Could Fall From $1 Billion to $200 Million

Can stated that the sharp decline in vessel traffic is also directly affecting the state’s revenues from Strait transits, continuing: “Previously, an average of 200 vessels passed through our Straits every day. Now, this number has fallen to 30–40 vessels. The Black Sea is almost completely empty. Turkey’s annual revenues from the Straits had exceeded $800 million and were heading toward $1 billion. Due to this crisis, we expect our revenues to fall to around $200 million, which would only be enough to cover expenses.”

Call for a “New Trade Corridor” to Find a Solution

Stating that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure are closely following the issue, Can emphasized the need to establish a new “Trade Corridor” similar to the Grain Corridor previously created under Türkiye’s leadership. Can also said they expect support for the sector from the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), adding that if he were its chairman, he would provide the relevant authorities with the right recommendations and work to resolve the congestion in the Sea of Marmara and navigational safety risks as soon as possible.