Hormuz crisis could Add $14 billion to Türkiye’s energy bill
The sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices following the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has once again brought Türkiye’s energy import costs into focus
According to a report published by energy think tank Ember, Türkiye’s energy bill could increase by approximately $14 billion in 2026 if current price levels persist through the end of the year.
As a country that meets nearly two-thirds of its energy demand through imports, Türkiye remains highly exposed to fluctuations in global energy markets. After the Russia-Ukraine war pushed the country’s net energy import bill above $80 billion in 2022, Türkiye is now facing a similar cost burden due to developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz Push Energy Prices Higher
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping following the outbreak of hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran on February 28, 2026, intensified concerns over global energy security. The strait is a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies and LNG trade pass.
According to Ember’s analysis, between the start of the conflict and May 1, 2026, Brent crude oil prices rose by 50 percent, while European natural gas prices increased by 45 percent.
Based on the assumption that these price levels remain unchanged through the end of the year, Ember estimates that Türkiye’s energy import bill will increase by approximately $14 billion compared with 2025. Of this amount, $7.7 billion is expected to come from higher oil costs, while $6.4 billion will result from increased natural gas import expenses.
Impact Already Visible
The effects of the crisis have already begun to emerge. During March, April and May, Türkiye’s net energy import bill increased by approximately $3 billion compared with the same period last year, representing a 26 percent rise.
Oil Accounts for the Largest Share of Additional Costs
According to the report, the largest portion of the additional burden stems from higher oil prices. Following the conflict, oil prices increased by an average of $35 per barrel, a development expected to generate an additional $7.7 billion in costs for Türkiye throughout 2026 due to its heavy reliance on imports.
Approximately two-thirds of this additional cost is linked to road transportation and other sectors with high fuel consumption.
Natural Gas Impact Expected to Intensify Later in the Year
Although Türkiye’s direct dependence on natural gas supplies passing through the Hormuz region is relatively limited, the country remains exposed to rising global energy prices.
Furthermore, a significant portion of Türkiye’s natural gas import contracts are indexed to oil prices. As a result, increases in oil prices typically affect natural gas costs with a lag of approximately nine months.
Consequently, the cost pressure from natural gas imports is expected to become more pronounced during the final months of the year. If current market conditions persist, Türkiye’s natural gas import bill could increase by an additional $6.4 billion.
Electrification Seen as a Long-Term Solution
The report highlights electrification as one of the most effective ways to reduce Türkiye’s dependence on imported fossil fuels. According to Ember’s findings, every one million electric vehicles deployed in Türkiye can prevent approximately $900 million in annual fossil fuel imports.
Commenting on the findings, Ember Analyst and report author Bahadır Sercan Gümüş said:
“Türkiye’s dependence on fossil fuels makes its energy bill vulnerable to every global crisis. Accelerating electrification in end-use sectors such as transportation and buildings, which account for a large share of energy consumption, would provide a lasting reduction in import costs.”
