Far East–Europe Freight Market: A Search for Stability
Nearly two years have passed since global carriers began rerouting Asia–Europe services via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid security threats in the Red Sea. Yet, vessel and crew shortages remain a pressing issue on several Far East–Europe routes.
According to Alphaliner data, operating all 31 Far East–Europe services at full capacity—run by OCEAN Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen), Gemini Cooperation (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd), Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM, Yang Ming), and MSC—requires 461 vessels. As of mid-September, however, only 425 ships were deployed, leaving a shortfall of 36 vessels.
Deniz Dinçer Memiş, Deputy General Manager of Sea Freight at Talay Logistics, points out that the volatility in freight rates stems from both tonnage shortages and route changes. “Post-pandemic, rates from the Far East to the Mediterranean and Northern Europe were stuck in the $1,500–$2,000 range. But once the Suez Canal was bypassed in favor of the Cape of Good Hope, rates surged by 100–150%, reaching nearly $5,000,” he explains.
However, this spike proved temporary. As supply and demand began to rebalance, spot freight rates from Shanghai to Northern Europe dropped by 45% in recent weeks. Memiş adds, “Due to congestion and allocation issues, we still see monthly increases of up to 25%. But overall, the trend clearly points to intense price competition among major operators.”
Industry representatives emphasize that this volatility is felt not only in maritime transport but also in land logistics. Political risks continue to exert pressure on pricing, while declining export volumes and the emergence of alternative routes are shaping the future direction of freight rates.
