Tanker Market Outlook 2026: Poten Highlights Key Shifts Ahead
The bullish momentum of last year is unlikely to persist in 2026, as vessel deliveries outpace new orders. Forecasting tanker markets remains notoriously difficult, given their sensitivity to geopolitical upheavals ,of which there have been plenty recentl
New York broker Poten & Partners has outlined five likely developments for tanker owners this year. Its first prediction may prove the most controversial: the sanctioned tanker fleet could shrink for the first time since 2021.
Several factors contribute to this outlook. The carriage of sanctioned oil is drawing mainstream attention; the 1,306 sanctioned tankers tracked by TankerTrackers.com are aging rapidly, facing tighter regulations and fewer employment opportunities. Venezuela, for instance, no longer accepts sanctioned vessels, forcing owners to seek alternative , and riskier ,business.
Despite concerns over Venezuela’s deteriorating oil infrastructure, Poten expects production and exports to rise by 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. The International Energy Agency estimated output at 0.99 million bpd in December, but Poten projects this to climb to 1.25 million bpd, potentially benefiting the mainstream fleet.
Conversely, Russian crude production is forecast to decline. While Russia’s “dark fleet” has redirected exports from Europe to Turkey, India, and China, importers of Russian crude are facing mounting pressure, Poten notes.
